No offense to Martin Scorsese or Todd Phillips, but they should be happy with their nomination and except nothing more. The Irishman has completely run out of steam and while I think Phillips did a nice job with Joker, most of what people like about that movie is Joaquin Phoenix’s performance. So, the real options here are Sam Mendes (-1400), Bong Joon-Ho (+550) and Quentin Tarantino (+1200). I could see a longshot case for Tarantino getting this partially because Once Upon A Time is great and partially as a celebration of his career since he’s allegedly only making one more movie, but he just hasn’t won many of the precussor awards. He lost at the Critics Choice (Mendes and Joon-Ho tie), the Golden Globes (Joon-Ho) and the Directors Guild (Mendes). So, let’s throw him out.
Everything about 1917 screams well-directed movie. You can just see the elite level of planning and the direction in what was accomplished. He deserves to be the favorite and will probably win, but Bong Joon-Ho is very much alive. He seems to be very well-respected and well-liked in the industry, and if enough voters power through the subtitles, he could win. I think there’s like a 1 in 3 shot he takes this, which is worth it from a gambling standpoint.
Who Will (Probably) Win: Sam Mendes
Who I’d Gamble On: Bong Joon-Ho